基于临床特征和血清学指标的舌鳞状细胞癌术后患者预后分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-616x.2025.03.010

Abstract

Abstract: OBJECTIVE： To identify prognostic serological indicators and to establish a nomogram model for predicting prognosis of tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) patients after surgery. METHODS： Patients with TSCC (n=169) who received surgical treatment in Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College and their clinical information were collected. These patients were randomly divided into training group (118 patients) and verification group (51 patients). In the training group， the prognostic factors related to overall survival (OS) of TSCC patients were screened by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis， and a nomogram model was constructed. Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria were used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the nomogram. The bootstrap-corrected of consistency and time-dependent consistency indices were used to evaluate discrimination ability of the nomogram. The predictive ability of the nomogram was evaluated by calibration curve analysis. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the decision benefit rate of the model. The above methods were analyzed and verified in the verification group. RESULTS： The prognostic factors related to OS of TSCC patients were pTNM stage， hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase，blood urea nitrogen，total bilirubin，alanine aminotransferase and factor B. The analysis results of Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria showed that the nomogram had better goodness of fit than pTNM stage. In the training group， the bootstrap-corrected of consistency index of the nomogram was 0.814，higher than that of the pTNM stage of 0.683. The same result also appeared in the verification group， indicating that the nomogram had better discrimination ability than the pTNM stage. The result of the decision curve analysis showed that， compared with pTNM stage， the nomogram had a better net benefit within a reasonable threshold probability range. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good consistency between the probabilities and observed values in both the training and verification groups. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the nomogram predicted the OS of high- and low-risk TSCC patients in both the training and the verification groups (P<0.01). CONCLUSION： Based on clinical characteristics and serological markers，the nomogram might be a novel tool for evaluating the survival probability of TSCC patients.

Key words: tongue squamous cell carcinoma, nomogram, pTNM stage, prognosis, surgery

CLC Number:

R739.86

CAI Zeman, GUO Haipeng, LI Huier, LIN Yiwei, WU Fangcai, KANG Weipiao. A nomogram based on clinical characteristics and serological indicators for prognosis prediction of surgical tongue squamous cell carcinomas[J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2025, 37(3): 234-241,261.

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A nomogram based on clinical characteristics and serological indicators for prognosis prediction of surgical tongue squamous cell carcinomas

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