食管癌生存随访调查及列线图预后预测模型的建立

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-616x.2023.01.007

Abstract

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To investigate survival of patients with esophageal cancers，analyze prognostic factors and establish a prognostic model. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on 186 patients with esophageal cancers who were admitted to the General Hospital of Veterans of Hebei Province in Xingtai，China from February 2013 to August 2017. Demographic characteristics，and clinical and pathological data of patients were collected via telephone interviews，outpatient follow-ups or inpatient reexaminations. The first date of diagnosis of a patient was designated as the starting point of the observation time，the last follow-up time or the death event of the patient was the end point，and the last follow-up time was December 30，2020. RESULTS: Among the 186 patients，162 cases (87.10%) were males，181 cases (97.31%) were Hans，144 cases (77.42%) were squamous cell carcinomas，and 135 cases (72.58%) were in clinical stages III-IV. Up to the last follow-up time，45 patients survived，and the average survival time of all patients was (33.48 ±1.72) months. The 1-，3- and 5-year survival rates were 68.89% (130/186 cases)，41.94% (78/186) and 24.19% (45/186)，respectively. Cox multivariate analyses showed that smoking history，T3-4 stage，N1 stage and M1 stage were factors for good prognosis，and surgery was a protective factor (P<0.05). Expression of the survival risk function for the patients was h(t)=h_0(t)exp (1.038×smoking history+0.419×T stage+1.062×N stage+0.772×M stage-1.100×surgical history). The larger the function index，the greater the risk. The concordance index was 0.772 with a standard error of 0.013，with high internal consistency. CONCLUSION: The 5-year survival rate of our patients was relatively low. Their prognosis was mainly affected by smoking history，T stage，N stage，M stage and surgical status. The nomogram constructed with the above indicators can be used to predict prognosis of patients with esophageal cancers.

Key words: Xingtai area, esophageal cancer, survival follow-up, prognostic factors, multivariate analysis

CLC Number:

R735.1

LU Dapeng, ZHAO Weilin, WANG Yuqiang, LU Hongchao, WEI Shuangping. Survival follow-up survey of esophageal cancers and establishment of a nomogram prognosis prediction model[J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2023, 35(1): 37-42.

References

[1] FERNÁNDEZ-MONTES A, ALCAIDE J, ALSINA M, et al. SEOM-GEMCAD-TTD Clinical Guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of esophageal cancer (2021)[J]. Clin Transl Oncol, 2022, 24(4):658-669.
[2] 刘宇英, 魏君丽, 江柔, 等. 食管癌的流行病学及筛查研究进展[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2022, 26(7):839-844.
[3] 朱娟, 马山蕊, 李新庆, 等. 中国食管癌患者生活质量研究系统综述[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41(9):1536-1541.
[4] 杨欢, 孙宛怡, 王建炳, 等. 中国食管癌病因学、筛查及早期诊断研究进展[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2022, 49(3):169-175.
[5] HUANG J J, KOULAOUZIDIS A, MARLICZ W, et al. Global burden, risk factors, and trends of esophageal cancer:an analysis of cancer registries from 48 countries[J]. Cancers, 2021, 13(1):141.
[6] CAO J J, XU H, LI W, et al. Nutritional assessment and risk factors associated to malnutrition in patients with esophageal cancer[J]. Curr Probl Cancer, 2021, 45(1):100638.
[7] 何乔, 敬元华, 黄海容, 等. 四川省南部县农村居民食管癌危险因素暴露水平及聚集分析[J]. 中华肿瘤防治杂志, 2019, 26(22):1675-1680.
[8] BERGER A, RAHMI G, PERROD G, et al. Long-term follow-up after endoscopic resection for superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma:a multicenter Western study[J]. Endoscopy, 2019, 51(4):298-306.
[9] LIN S H, HOBBS B P, VERMA V, et al. Randomized phase IIB trial of proton beam therapy versus intensity-modulated radiation therapy for locally advanced esophageal cancer[J]. J Clin Oncol, 2020, 38(14):1569-1579.
[10] BARRET M, PRAT F. Diagnosis and treatment of superficial esophageal cancer[J]. Ann Gastroenterol, 2018, 31(3):256-265.
[11] QI Z P, CHEN T, LI B, et al. Endoscopic submucosal dissection for early esophageal cancer in elderly patients with relative indications for endoscopic treatment[J]. Endoscopy, 2018, 50(9):839-845.
[12] SADDOUGHI S A III. Survival after surgical resection of stage IV esophageal cancer[J]. Ann Thorac Surg, 2017, 103(1):261-266.
[13] NOORDMAN B J. Impact of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy on health-related quality of life in long-term survivors of esophageal or junctional cancer:results from the randomized CROSS trial[J]. Ann Oncol, 2018, 29(2):445-451.
[14] KAUPPILA J H, JOHAR A, LAGERGREN P. Medical and surgical complications and health-related quality of life after esophageal cancer surgery[J]. Ann Surg, 2020, 271(3):502-508.
[15] SIVESH K KAMARAJAH MBCHB B, ANANTHA MADHAVAN MD M, JAKUB CHMELO MUDR M, et al. Impact of smoking status on perioperative morbidity, mortality, and long-term survival following transthoracic esophagectomy for esophageal cancer[J]. Ann Surg Oncol, 2021, 28(9):4905-4915.
[16] HAYASHI Y, IIJIMA H, ISOHASHI F, et al. The heart's exposure to radiation increases the risk of cardiac toxicity after chemoradiotherapy for superficial esophageal cancer:a retrospective cohort study[J]. BMC Cancer, 2019, 19(1):195.
[17] WOLFGANG SCHROEDER MD F, GHADIMI MD M P H, MD H S, et al. Long-term outcome after histopathological complete response with and without nodal metastases following multimodal treatment of esophageal cancer[J]. Ann Surg Oncol, 2022, 29(7):4419-4428.
[18] TAMAGAWA A, AOYAMA T, TAMAGAWA H, et al. Influence of postoperative pneumonia on esophageal cancer survival and recurrence[J]. Anticancer Res, 2019, 39(5):2671-2678.
[19] J-RVINEN T, ILONEN I, KAUPPI J, et al. Loss of skeletal muscle mass during neoadjuvant treatments correlates with worse prognosis in esophageal cancer:a retrospective cohort study[J]. World J Surg Oncol, 2018, 16(1):27.
[20] KAUPPILA J H, WAHLIN K, LAGERGREN P, et al. Sex differences in the prognosis after surgery for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma[J]. Int J Cancer, 2019, 144(6):1284-1291.

Survival follow-up survey of esophageal cancers and establishment of a nomogram prognosis prediction model

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	FENG Zhiyin, WU Yixian, HA Xiaodan, CHEN Wujin, LI Xiumei, DONG Juanjuan. Detection of p38MAPK gene in plasma cell-free DNA among patients with high incidence of esophageal cancer [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2022, 34(2): 105-109.
[2]	JIAO Wenjing, GUO Xiujuan, MA Ming, SHAO Junguo, ZHANG Jinyan. Comparative efficacies between concurrent chemo-radiotherapy and radiotherapy alone in elderly patients with locally advanced esophageal cancers [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2021, 33(2): 124-128.
[3]	CHEN Wanxian, WANG Simeng, CHEN Zhangyu, WANG Panji, ZHENG Chunwen, LI Enmin, XU Liyan. CASIN, a CDC42 inhibitor, inhibited viability and migration of esophageal carcinoma cells in vitro [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2021, 33(2): 136-142.
[4]	FENG Min, ABBIE·Mohetar, SHI Jingyi, ZUKELAI·Alijiang, LI Yongxiang, YAN Changshun, LI Xiumei. Expression of miR-143, miR-145 and Survivin mRNA in esophageal cancers among Kazaks [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2020, 32(1): 29-32.
[5]	MA Lili, ZHANG Shuli, LI Qin, XU Peng, FENG Min, LI Xiumei. Screening and identification of differentially expressed miRNAs in esophageal cancers among Xinjiang Kazaks [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2020, 32(1): 52-56.
[6]	YANG Xingxiao, ZOU Naiyi, LI Qiaofang, ZHANG Xueyuan, SONG Heng, LIU Zhikun, MA Ming, SHAN Baoen, ZHU Shuchai. Significance in expression of RNF2 and PCNA proteins in esophageal squamous cancer cells [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2018, 30(4): 254-257.
[7]	HE Shuzhi, ZHAO Yue, LIU Yang, YANG Liucai, CHEN Ping, LIU Ran. Evaluation of the quality of life among esophageal cancer patients who received chemotherapy [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2017, 29(6): 437-444,449.
[8]	LI Xiumei, GUO Qiong, WANG Dong, CHEN Yan, LI Hui, CHEN Hongming, LI Huiwu. Expression and significance of miR-143, MMP-2 and TIMP-1 in esophageal cancer in Kazaks [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2016, 28(1): 32-35,40.
[9]	CAO Ying-ya，CHE Yi-qun，CHEN Qun，MA Wen-tao，LIU Yang，HAO Jia-jie，CAI Yan，LU Wei-hua，WANG Ming-rong，ZHANG Yu. Establishment of an esophageal cell line with stable expression of inducible PLK1-shRNA [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2014, 26(5): 348-352.
[10]	LI Xiu-mei，LI Hui，JIANG Xiao-fang，CHEN Yan，CHEN Hong-ming，LI Hui-wu. Expression of Survivin shRNA interference on CDK4 in esophageal ECA109 cells [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2014, 26(4): 298-304.
[11]	TIAN Wei，ZHANG Hui-xia，CHEN Yan. Methylation of the CpG island in MT-3 gene in esophageal carcinoma in Kazaks and Hans in Xinjiang [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2013, 25(5): 357-359.
[12]	CHEN Lan-ying，SONG Wei，YANG Hai-bo，YU Huai-bin，LIU Ya-jun，ZHI Shuang-cheng，YANG Feng. [J]. Carcinogenesis, Teratogenesis & Mutagenesis, 2013, 25(3): 201-204.
[13]	. Expressions and correlations of Livin and c-IAP2 in the Xinjiang Uygurs esophageal carcinoma [J]. , 2012, 24(2): 125-128.
[14]	LI Lei，DENG Yan-chao，ZHAO Yan，CHEN Yan. Methylation of the FHIT gene in esophageal carcinoma in Kazakh and Han and relationship with prognosis [J]. , 2012, 24(2): 132-135.
[15]	DU Ze-sen，WU Zhi-yong，ZHENG Chun-peng，LI Zhuo-yi，FU Jun-hui. Prognostic significance of the number of negative lymph node on the survival of patients with thoracic esophageal cancer [J]. , 2012, 24(1): 64-67.